Briefer published by the Council on Strategic Risks, 13 August, 2026

Climate & Security: Strategic Capability Game Takeaways

  • conflict risk
  • policy
What are the implications of climate change on the policies of governmental institutions and non-governmental organisations? And how can they play a role in mitigating climate-related conflict risk?

Climate Change Likely to Increase Conflict Risk

  • climate change
  • conflict risk
Research on the causal link between climate and conflict is contested – or so it was. Experts, led by Stanford’s Katharine Mach, have concluded that changes in the climate have affected armed conflict.
The High-Level Political Forum (HLPF) on Sustainable Development will convene Tuesday, 9 July, to Thursday, 18 July 2019, including the ministerial meeting of the forum on the last three days. Held under the auspices of the Economic and Social Council, the HLPF reviews in-depth the progress of six Sustainable Development Goals, among them Inequalities (SDG10), Climate Action (SDG13) and Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions (SDG16).
Eight of the ten countries hosting the most multilateral peace operations personnel in 2018 are located in areas highly exposed to climate change. As such, climate change is not just an issue of human security—it is transforming the entire security landscape. Nonetheless, international efforts to build and maintain peace are not yet taking these emerging challenges systematically into account.
On 19 June, 2019, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and the Jordan Red Crescent Society (JRCS) co-hosted a policy roundtable on climate change, conflict and resilience in Amman Jordan, with organizational support by the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (RCClimate) and the Overseas Development Institute (ODI).
Jordan, Palestine and Israel are strongly divided on political and religious issues, however when it comes to climate risks, they have equal problems and they aim to solve this together. Since 2018 the call for action on climate change worldwide increased to a significant level. In the Middle East the most visual climate risks are related to water: the lower Jordan River and the Dead Sea are shared environmental heritages of the three countries, but the water level is shrinking to alarmingly low levels.