Research on the causal link between climate and conflict is contested – or so it was. Renowned experts, led by Stanford’s Katharine Mach, have concluded that changes in the climate have affected armed conflict. Yet only to a limited extent; other conflict drivers are significantly more influential for conflict risk across experiences to date. It is the future that holds uncertainty. Conflict risk is expected to increase due to climate change – with consequences incomparable to armed conflict of the past.
Different research designs, datasets, and methods have led to publications with contrasting conclusions. In the study, published in Nature, structured judgements of experts, from diverse disciplines, are analysed to establish a comprehensive understanding of climatic changes as a risk factor for conflict.
These experts agree that climate variability and change have affected organized armed conflict within countries; however, the role of climate-related variables are judged to be small compared to other drivers of conflict. According to them, most influential are (1) low socioeconomic development, (2) low state capability, (3) intergroup inequality, and (4) a recent history of violent conflict.
Climate variability and/or change is ranked as one of the least influential drivers of conflict risk as well as the most uncertain in its influence. Yet in cases where climate-related variables have affected the four highest ranked drivers of conflict risk, the experts approximate that climate has most often increased the likelihood of conflict.
The question that subsequently follows is: how can climate-induced conflict risk be reduced? According to the experts, climate-related variables should be taken into account in assessments for conflict risk reduction; the effects of climate change should be considered during conflict mediation, peacekeeping operations, and post-conflict aid and reconstruction efforts.
Simultaneously, climate adaptation policies should be conflict-sensitive: it is critical to avoid mitigating policies that favour some groups over others – certainly this would play into the four drivers of conflict risk that were identified as most influential.
Read the full publication here.