Article by SIPRI, November 2025.
Global military spending hit $2.7 trillion in 2024, coinciding with stalled progress on the UN Sustainable Development Goals. This SIPRI paper explores how rising defense budgets undermine development, advocates for a human-centred security approach, and offers recommendations for reallocating resources toward achieving the 2030 Agenda. This article builds on the momentum generated by the analysis on the impact of the global increase in military expenditure on the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals conducted by the UN secretary-general.
A path to a development crisis
NATO’s commitment to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP over the next decade could push global military budgets to $5.2 trillion by 2030. Meanwhile, progress toward the 17 Sustainable Development Goals remains uneven, with only 35% of measurable targets on track as the 2030 deadline approaches. This reflects a shift toward prioritizing military security over human-centered approaches. This trade-off diverts resources from achieving the SDGs, while secondary effects, such as increased emissions and inequality, further hinder progress and ultimately compromise long-term global security and the Sustainable Development Goals.
Military expenditure at the expense of sustainable development
Increasing military spending limits economic growth and employment, as its fiscal multiplier is lower than investments in health, education, or infrastructure. Redirecting resources to social protection and poverty reduction yields significantly higher returns, highlighting the opportunity cost of prioritizing defense budgets over sustainable development and inclusive economic progress.
Although military spending is often seen as boosting jobs, studies in diverse countries have consistently shown that higher military spending reduces employment in the long term. In low- and middle-income countries, increased defense budgets correlate with reduced public investment in healthcare and education, with a 1% rise in military spending nearly offsetting health service funding.
Furthermore, rising military spending worsens economic and gender inequality by diverting funds from social programs that reduce disparities. Cuts to education, healthcare, and social protection disproportionately harm poor households and women, increasing unpaid care burdens and limiting access to work and education.
Additionally, rising military spending increases arms procurement and stockpiling, heightening risks of weapon diversion and illicit trafficking, which fuel crime, terrorism, and human rights abuses. This undermines peace and security goals, while the security paradox shows that military build-ups can escalate tensions, erode deterrence, and destabilize regional and global stability.
Supporting sustainable development through a human centred approach to security
The universal recognition of a human-centred approach to security was clearly articulated in 2015 as part of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. This human centred approach to security prioritizes protecting lives, rights, and livelihoods through education, healthcare, poverty reduction, and governance, balancing legitimate defense needs with sustainable development to foster lasting peace and prosperity. Therefore, it is a states' responsibility to find a balance in resource allocation between military needs and investment in sustainable development that fosters conditions for lasting peace and prosperity.
Looking ahead: Steps by the United Nations, states and civil society
To achieve the latter mentioned means to align security with sustainable development, the UN, states, and civil society must take decisive actions that reduce military spending’s impact and promote a human-centred approach to global peace. The article makes the following recommendations:
- The United Nations should revitalize its disarmament machinery: Reactivate UN mechanisms to make military expenditure and its development impact a priority, supported by expert groups to close knowledge gaps and propose actionable measures for security and sustainability.
- States should adopt a human-centred approach to security: Implement SDG impact assessments for military budget increases and recommit to development aid targets, ensuring defense spending does not undermine progress toward Agenda 2030 goals.
- Civil society should mobilize public advocacy: Lead campaigns and dialogues that reshape security narratives, amplify citizen priorities like education and healthcare, and pressure governments to reallocate resources toward sustainable development.
This summary is based on extracts from the article authored by Nan Tian and Xiao Liang, to read the full version of the article, follow the link.
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