08 October 2025

Climate damage caused by Russia's war in Ukraine

Final assessment report by the Initiative on GHG Accounting of War, October 2025. 

This final assessment report on the climate damage caused by Russia's war against Ukraine between 24 February 2022 - 23 February 2025 concludes that the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions attributable to the three years since the full-scale invasion have risen to almost 237 million tCO2e. This total is equivalent to the annual emissions of Austria, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovakia combined. The climate damage caused by this war amounts to over 43 billion USD when applying the Social Cost of Carbon of 185 USD / tCO2e.

Key Takeaways: Defining the Total GHG Emissions

The overall emissions of 236.8 MtCO2e over three years are broken down into six major impact categories:

  • Warfare (34%): This is the largest source of cumulative GHG emissions, accounting for 81.7 million tCO2e. These emissions primarily stem from the fossil fuel used by militaries, including tanks and fighter jets.
  • Reconstruction (27%): Emissions associated with rebuilding destroyed infrastructure account for 64.2 million tCO2e. These emissions are generally considered post-conflict.
  • Landscape Fires (21%): Fires in natural landscapes and the built environment account for 49.4 million tCO2e.
  • Civil Aviation (9%): Emissions resulting from detours and rerouting due to airspace closures total 20.3 million tCO2e.
  • Energy Infrastructure (7%): Damage to energy and fossil fuel infrastructure has caused 17.0 million tCO2e in emissions.
  • Refugees (2%): Emissions from the movement and transportation of refugees, IDPs, and Russians leaving Russia total 4.2 million tCO2e.

Massive Impact of Energy Infrastructure Events

While the Energy Infrastructure category accounts for 7% of the total cumulative emissions, it includes highly impactful large-scale events. A significant portion of the emissions in this category is attributed to the sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 & 2 pipelines on September 26, 2022. The resulting leaks released 465 ± 20 kt of methane into the atmosphere, which corresponds to 13.0 million tCO2e of GHG emissions. 

This updated estimate, although lower than initial estimations, constitutes the largest recorded transient anthropogenic methane emission event. Additionally, the damage to gas exploration infrastructure at the Black Sea, which caused a long-term fire starting in June 2022 and continuing for months, resulted in total climate impact estimated at 0.65 million tCO2e.

Significant Future Emissions Are Anticipated

The total cumulative emissions figure of 236.8 MtCO2e is comprised of both direct conflict-related emissions (138.0 MtCO2e) and indirect post-conflict emissions (98.8 MtCO2e). A significant portion of these emissions has yet to occur:

  1. Reconstruction Emissions: The emissions associated with the Reconstruction category (64.2 MtCO2e, amounting to 27% of the total) are mostly assumed to happen post-conflict. Rebuilding destroyed housing, public buildings, and infrastructure will be a daunting task, requiring massive volumes of carbon-intensive construction materials. Carbon-intensive concrete and steel are expected to cause over 80% of the future reconstruction emissions.
  2. Landfill Sites and Degradation: Future emissions will also come from landscape fires. Of the total emissions from landscape fires, future emissions from the degradation of dead forests will amount to 32.37 million tCO2e. Furthermore, fires in the built environment mean that large wooden fragments from damaged and destroyed residential buildings will likely be scavenged for heating or end up in improvised landfills where they will decay, leading to future emissions.

The potential to reduce these substantial future emissions through a green recovery was discussed and quantified in previous assessment reports. Currently, reconstruction accounts for 27% of the cumulative emissions after three years. By focusing on green reconstruction, the estimated emissions associated with this category could be significantly reduced, marking a meaningful step toward a more sustainable recovery. 

This summary is based on extracts from the final report authored by Lennard de Klerk, Mykola Shlapak, Sergiy Zibtsev, Viktor Myroniuk, Oleksandr Soshenskyi, Roman Vasylyshyn, Svitlana Krakovska, Lidiia Kryshtop, Rostyslav Bun, Leroy Farg. The full version can be found here.
 

Photo credit:  Jade Koroliuk on Unsplash

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