Report published by PeaceRep, January 2025.
The intensifying impacts of climate change are increasingly reshaping conflict dynamics around the world. Climate shocks, such as droughts and floods, act as threat multipliers, worsening existing vulnerabilities and escalating competition over critical resources like water, land, and natural wealth. The report uses geospatial climatological and conflict data to test two hypotheses: (1) climate shocks increase rebel demands for climate-related resources, and (2) these heightened demands lead to greater inclusion of such issues in peace agreements. The findings provide an early but significant glimpse into how global warming could reshape conflict dynamics.
How climate shocks influence rebel demands:
Using data from 62 conflict-affected countries between 1989 and 2018, the research finds that climate shocks significantly heighten rebel demands in three major areas:
- Natural resources: Rebel demands for control over natural resources show a sharp increase, becoming statistically significant five years after a climate shock.
- Water resources: Water-related demands rise with a delayed effect, becoming significant after seven years, indicating a growing urgency over time.
- Land reform: Land-related demands increase almost immediately post-shock, reflecting the direct and severe impact of climate events on cultivable land. However, it becomes statistically significant seven years post-treatment.
These findings suggest both immediate and cumulative effects, where prolonged resource scarcity intensifies the urgency and frequency of rebel demands over time.
Gaps in peace agreement provisions:
Despite the growing importance of climate-related issues in conflict dynamics, peace agreements often inadequately address these evolving needs. Analysis of peace agreement texts shows that while natural resource demands lead to more resource-related provisions, the same cannot be said for water and land reform. Alarmingly, rising water scarcity demands correlate weakly with fewer water-related provisions, highlighting a major gap in current peacebuilding practices. The absence of robust provisions for water and land could perpetuate instability and risk undermining long-term peace.
How climate must be integrated into peacebuilding:
The analysis reveals a critical need to systematically incorporate climate concerns into conflict resolution strategies. Key recommendations include:
- Ensure peace negotiations explicitly address climate-related resource management, particularly around water, land, and natural resources.
- Build infrastructure resilient to climate shocks, strengthen water management systems, and promote sustainable agricultural practices.
- Engage marginalized communities and those most affected by climate events in peace talks, ensuring their perspectives shape agreements.
- Include specialists from environmental NGOs and climate scientists during negotiation phases to inform decision-making.
Failing to systematically incorporate climate-security linkages into conflict resolution strategies risks exacerbating future conflict cycles. Addressing the climate-security nexus holistically offers a pathway to building more equitable, sustainable, and resilient peace in a rapidly warming world.
This text is based on extracts from a report written by Elisa D’Amico, January 2025. The complete study, along with its key findings can be found here.
See below for our coverage on similar topics:
- Analysis of Interconnected Climate Security and Violent Extremism Risks: A Practical Guide for Mauritania
- UN Peacebuilding Fund Tip Sheet on Climate, Peace and Security and Environmental Peacebuilding
- The Impact of Climate Change on Conflict
Photo by Elisa Finocchiaro on Flickr