Report published by the United Nations Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute (UNICRI), April 2025.
Climate Insecurity as a Multiplier of Extremism:
Climate change and violent extremism are increasingly interconnected challenges across West Africa and the Sahel, with Mauritania at a critical crossroads. As one of the most environmentally vulnerable countries in the region, Mauritania exemplifies how escalating climate stressors, such as erratic rainfall, desertification, and temperature spikes intersect with fragile socio-political conditions, potentially reinforcing the drivers of violent extremism. Recognizing this convergence, the UNICRI has developed a localized methodological tool to help stakeholders in Mauritania assess these interconnected risks and identify context-specific policy and programme responses.
Mauritania’s Climate Vulnerability:
Mauritania’s vulnerability is underscored by its arid geography. Over 80% of its land is desert and the country’s economy is heavily reliant on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture and livestock, which collectively support up to 70% of the population. The impacts of climate change are stark: a 1.5°C rise in average temperatures since the 1960s, coupled with frequent droughts and floods, has devastated livelihoods and fuelled rural-to-urban migration. In turn, this has increased pressure on urban infrastructure and heightened social tensions, particularly in resource-scarce areas.
Pathways of Risk Amplification:
The report outlines four key pathways through which climate stress may exacerbate violent extremism:
- Resource scarcity (e.g., water, land) leading to conflict between communities;
- Forced displacement and migration, particularly from climate-vulnerable rural areas to urban centres;
- Livelihood disruption, particularly among youth, making them more vulnerable to recruitment by extremist groups;
- Governance challenges, where weak institutions and poor public service delivery can erode trust and create opportunities for non-state actors to gain influence.
A Fragile Yet Resilient Landscape:
Mauritania’s position is made more fragile by regional instability, especially in light of deteriorating security in neighbouring Mali and Niger. Despite this, the country has largely maintained internal stability and has avoided major extremist violence since 2011. However, this resilience remains tenuous, especially given ongoing cross-border migration pressures and increasing refugee populations of over 112,000 individuals, mostly from Mali, are now hosted in camps like Mberra, often outnumbering local residents and fuelling resource-based tensions.
A Strategic Methodology for Action:
Building on this analysis, the tool provides a structured methodology for action, centred around three key entry points:
- Identifying interventions at the climate-security nexus: Mapping existing vulnerabilities allows for targeted policies that integrate climate adaptation with conflict prevention. Mauritania already has numerous national strategies, including the Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (2021–2030) and the National Environmental Action Plan, but the report emphasizes the need for coordinated, cross-sectoral approaches that bridge climate and security agendas.
- Mobilizing inclusive stakeholder participation: Effective risk mitigation demands active involvement from all sectors of society. The report highlights the roles of non-state actors, particularly women and youth, who are both disproportionately affected and crucial to community resilience. Existing initiatives like the Tamkeen project (empowering youth and women) and Mourchidates (engaging women religious leaders in prevention) exemplify inclusive approaches that strengthen local capacity.
- Securing sustainable implementation and financing: Long-term resilience depends on sustained investment in climate and security programmes. Recommendations include leveraging national and international funding mechanisms and building institutional capacity for transparent, adaptive governance. Emphasis is placed on evolving policies that reflect lived realities and new risks, ensuring that interventions remain relevant and effective over time.
Ground-Level Engagement and Risk Mapping:
The report also emphasizes participatory data collection and area-specific risk mapping, supporting users to identify the most vulnerable regions and populations. This approach ensures that analysis remains grounded in lived realities and empowers local stakeholders to co-design responses. Integrating gender- and youth-sensitive perspectives is especially crucial to shaping effective, inclusive solutions.
Through this comprehensive, evidence-based tool, Mauritania is positioned to become a regional model for climate-security integration, where environmental fragility is transformed into a foundation for peacebuilding and sustainable development.
This text is based on extracts from a report published by the United Nations Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute (UNICRI), April 2025. The complete methodology can be found here.
See below for our coverage on similar topics:
- Climate, Conflict, and Mobility in Mali: A Complex Interplay
- Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: South Sudan
- Solar Power and Environmental Peacebuilding in South-central Somalia
Photo by Luca Dal Molin on Unsplash