08 December 2025

Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet for Abyei

Factsheet published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, December 2025.

The Abyei Administrative Area, a disputed territory between Sudan and South Sudan, faces a complex mix of climate, security, and governance challenges. Its semi-arid climate, marked by increasingly irregular rainfall and prolonged dry periods, has disrupted traditional livelihoods such as cattle herding and farming. These shifts exacerbate competition over scarce resources like water and grazing land, fueling intercommunal tensions among groups such as the Ngok Dinka, Misseriya, and Twic Dinka. 

Political uncertainty over Abyei’s final status, combined with weak governance and the ongoing civil war in Sudan, further undermines stability and development. Humanitarian needs have surged due to displacement from floods and conflict, while limited infrastructure and basic services strain coping capacities. UNISFA remains the primary security provider, but its operations are increasingly constrained by extreme weather and insecurity.

Key Takeaways

  • Communities rely on climate-sensitive livelihoods (cattle herding, farming, seasonal migration), making them highly vulnerable.
  • Flooding and prolonged dry spells have reduced crop yields, displaced households, and worsened food insecurity.
  • Competition over land and water during dry seasons has become more violent due to militia presence and small arms proliferation.
  • Seasonal migration increases intercommunal tensions between Ngok Dinka and Misseriya, though dialogue has reduced clashes.
  • Abyei’s disputed status hinders long-term development planning and climate adaptation efforts.
  • UNISFA remains the main security provider, but its operations are constrained by climate hazards and limited capacity.

Recent trends show rising temperatures and declining rainfall in Abyei’s neighboring regions, pointing to hotter, more water-stressed conditions and heightened flood risks. These climatic pressures intersect with socioecological vulnerabilities, including population growth, poor services, and armed group proliferation. Livelihood shocks, such as crop failures and livestock losses, intensify poverty and fuel resource-based conflicts, while migration patterns shift due to floods and seasonal variability, increasing tensions between pastoralists and host communities. 

Armed actors exploit instability, and militia activity has grown alongside arms proliferation. Political grievances over land and Abyei’s unresolved status compound these risks, limiting development and aid delivery. The fact sheet identifies four pathways linking climate and security: livelihood impacts, migration, armed actors, and political grievances. 

Recommended Actions Include:

  • Increase support for climate-resilient livelihoods and environmental peacebuilding through inclusive, community-based initiatives.
  • Enhance regional collaboration to address transboundary climate, peace, and migration issues.
  • Strengthen the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA's) mandate and capabilities for mobility, protection of civilians, and climate-sensitive peace operations.
  • Provide training and advisory support to UNISFA on climate-related security risks, leveraging UN Climate Security Mechanism and other UN bodies.
  • Integrate climate-related information into migration dialogues and UNISFA planning for mission-wide approaches.
  • Ensure adequate funding and resources for humanitarian assistance and security operations in Abyei.

This summary is based on extracts from the final report authored by Katongo Seyuba, Dr Thor Olav Iversen, Kheira Tarif, Dr Andrew E. Yaw Tchie, Ingvild Brodtkorb and Jules Duhamel. The full version can be found here.

Photo credit Ammar Nasir on Unsplash.

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