Article published by the Climate Change & (In)Security Project (CCIP), May 2025.
Climate change is a defining condition of modern security. From intensifying wildfires and extreme heat to water scarcity and migration crises, climate-related disruptions are reshaping the global risk landscape. For the UK, a nation embedded in global supply chains and geopolitical alliances, these developments carry direct strategic consequences. Yet, despite policy-level recognition, the UK’s national security architecture largely lacks the integrated tools and institutional foresight to keep pace.
The need for a dedicated intelligence capability:
While government documents such as the Integrated Review Refresh (2023) and the Ministry of Defence’s Climate Change Strategy (2021) label climate change a key “threat multiplier,” these high-level priorities have not translated into an operational, cross-departmental intelligence response. The current approach remains fragmented, with climate foresight largely absent from mainstream national security and defence planning.
To bridge this critical gap, the authors call for the establishment of a UK Climate Security Intelligence Centre (CSIC). This body would provide systematic early warning, scenario modelling, and strategic decision support, which would bring the same analytical rigour applied to conventional threats to the climate-security nexus.
Strategic Imperatives and National Benefits:
The CSIC would support multiple national objectives:
- National resilience: By anticipating cascading risks, from floods and power outages to food insecurity, the UK can build more robust infrastructure and reduce long-term crisis response costs.
- Economic growth: Investing in satellite systems, AI, and risk analytics creates high-skill jobs and positions the UK as a leader in green technology and climate-security services.
- Social justice: Hyper-local climate intelligence enables tailored interventions that protect the most vulnerable, turning policy into actionable equity.
- Modern security strategy: Climate risks increasingly underlie conflicts, civil unrest, and geopolitical instability. Embedding foresight across defence and diplomacy ensures a proactive posture.
Lessons from Jordan: a working prototype
The paper draws valuable insights from the world’s first national Climate Security Intelligence Unit, established in Jordan with support from the University of Oxford. Situated within the National Centre for Security and Crisis Management, this initiative integrates military, civilian, and scientific expertise to assess climate risks. Core functions include:
- Horizon scanning for emerging threats (e.g. drought-induced conflict)
- Fusion of climate and security data streams
- Red teaming and scenario exercises to test preparedness
- Tailored communication for decision-makers
This model demonstrates that climate intelligence centres are both feasible and effective, even in resource-constrained settings. The UK can adapt this blueprint using existing institutions, inter-agency collaboration, and public-private partnerships.
Recommendations:
To implement a successful UK-CSIC, the paper recommends:
- Creating the CSIC under the Cabinet Office for authority and integration.
- Mandating climate risk reporting across critical infrastructure sectors.
- Leveraging AI and GIS tools to enable predictive analytics.
- Coordinating scenario exercises to build institutional muscle memory.
- Fostering international cooperation, especially with NATO and partner states.
The UK has the policy frameworks, international credibility, and scientific expertise to lead on climate security, but it also needs an institutional vehicle to drive that vision. As the authors argue, establishing the CSIC could mark a transformative step in aligning national security strategy with the climate reality, allowing the UK to act not reactively but with foresight and strategy on climate-related security risks.
This text is based on extracts from an article written by Louise Selisny, Tim Clack and Richard Nugee, May 2025. The complete paper can be found here.
See below for our coverage on similar topics:
- Defence in a Climate-Changed World: Futureproofing its Licence to Operate
- Earth System Tipping Points Are a Threat to Europe – How to Get Prepared?
- National Interdisciplinary Climate Risk Assessment : The Consequences of the Climate Crisis for Germany