Rapid Evidence Assessment (REA) Policy Brief published by XCEPT (Cross-Border Conflict Evidence, Policy and Trends), as part of the Managing Climate, Peace and Security Risks in the Borderlands of the Lake Chad Region project, led by the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs , 20 January 2026.
As climate impacts intensify across fragile regions, the Lake Chad Basin offers a stark example of how climate change, food insecurity, and conflict are becoming inseparable drivers of instability.
This XCEPT policy brief examines how climate - related shocks, such as droughts, floods, and environmental degradation, interact with other instability factors, and how regional responses can be shaped. Far from acting as isolated stressors, climate impacts interact with conflict dynamics in ways that undermine livelihoods, strain social cohesion, and weaken trust in governance institutions.
In response, countries bordering the Lake Chad Basin - in collaboration with the Lake Chad Basin Commission - have developed the Regional Strategy for Stabilisation, Recovery and Resilience (RS-SRR). While climate change is not a standalone pillar of the strategy, its implementation has increasingly adapted to climate realities, integrating humanitarian, development and peace objectives across the Humanitarian, Development and Peace (HDP) Nexus.
Crucially, the brief highlights a familiar gap between recognition and integration. Although climate risks are clearly shaping peace and security outcomes, they remain unevenly embedded in stabilisation planning. Stronger links between climate adaptation, food security, governance and conflict prevention are needed to avoid treating symptoms rather than drivers of instability.
The central message is clear: managing climate, peace and security risks requires holistic, locally grounded and adaptive approaches. Investments that strengthen climate resilience, food security and social cohesion are not peripheral to stabilisation - they are foundational to it.
Climate change shapes and influences the complex drivers of conflict, which include livelihood insecurity, negative experiences and related grievances with state intervention playing into the economic incentives that armed groups provide.
Main takeaways
- Climate change as a risk amplifier. Climate change, development issues and violent conflict reinforce each other, deepening pressures on livelihoods, food security and social cohesion.
- Food and water insecurity as security risks. Disruptions to food and water systems are key pathways through which climate shocks contribute to instability and armed violence.
- Value of integrated stabilisation strategies. The RS-SRR shows the importance of linking humanitarian, development and peace efforts, even where climate is not a formal pillar.
- Local ownership and adaptive governance. Effective resilience depends on strong local institutions, civil society engagement and learning-oriented implementation of stabilisation programmes.
This text is based on extracts from a Rapid Evidence Assessment (REA) policy brief written by Cedric de Coning (NUPI), Thor Olav Iversen (NUPI), Andrew E. Yaw Tchie (NUPI), Saibou Issa (University of Yaounde) , Freedom Onuoha (University of Nigeria), Minoo Koefoed (Linköping University) and Ingvild Brox Brodtkorb (NUPI). To read the complete piece, follow the link here.
Photo credit from Ato Aikins on Unsplash.