Briefer published by the Center for Climate & Security, April 2025.
Violence linked to climate change is often framed as a result of external pressures like droughts, storms, and other climatic shocks acting as “threat multipliers” in already fragile environments. However, this briefer introduces a compelling alternative pathway: the “termite theory.” Rather than acting from the outside, climate change often gnaws away from within, quietly weakening the institutions, relationships, and psychological resilience that traditionally help communities resist violence. The paper identifies five key pathways through which climate stress contributes to instability from within:
1. Eroding coping mechanisms:
Climate stresses are progressively depleting the financial and material safety nets that people rely on during crises. In north-Eastern Syria, for example, reduced rainfall stretched the fodder-sourcing period for livestock herders, weakening their income and resilience. This financial erosion, in turn, made some community members more vulnerable to ISIS recruitment. As climatic disruptions become more frequent and severe, emergency savings, remittances, and access to agricultural loans are all drying up, leaving families exposed.
2. Fracturing social fabric:
Climate-induced migration is breaking apart communities from within. As younger, more capable members leave climate-affected villages, those who remain are deprived of social support, companionship, and informal conflict resolution mechanisms. In parts of southern Jordan, dislocated youth have turned to illicit activities, such as drug use and petty crime. At the same time, the departure of local leaders undermines traditional peacekeeping institutions, as seen in West Africa, where the collapse of community-led arbitration has intensified farmer-herder conflicts.
3. Weakening state and civil society capacity:
Just as local institutions falter, national governments and NGOs are struggling to meet rising demands. Climate shocks divert scarce resources toward disaster response, increasing the cost of borrowing and stretching already limited administrative reach. In Mauritania, entire departments are reportedly left without civil servants, as extreme heat and storms deter postings to rural areas. This vacuum often leaves vulnerable communities without basic governance or protection.
4. Draining psychological resilience:
The psychological toll of climate change may be the most elusive yet potent driver of instability. Shifting seasons, vanishing biodiversity, and unpredictable rainfall patterns are fostering deep emotional dislocation. In Burkina Faso, one village launched a doomed water-related attack simply because, in their words, they were no longer “of firm mind.” Across conflict-affected regions, individuals increasingly report irrational decisions and breakdowns in mental stability as climatic pressures accumulate.
5. Undermining planning and adaptive strategies
People on the climate frontlines often attempt to plan for the future, but such strategies are frequently compromised. Farmers, for example, may clear forested land to compensate for falling yields, only to worsen soil degradation and increase their exposure to armed groups. In Iraq, desperate agricultural decisions, made with full awareness of their long-term harm, reflect the urgency of present-day survival. Education, once a pathway out of environmental dependency, is also being sacrificed, as children are pulled from school to help on farms or because families can no longer afford basic costs.
A call for urgent rethinking
The “termite theory” reframes the climate-violence nexus by highlighting how climate change internally erodes the very systems designed to prevent violence. It demands more than climate adaptation. It calls for targeted, context-sensitive interventions that strengthen financial, institutional, social, and psychological resilience. As climate change deepens vulnerabilities from within, the risk isn’t just more violence, but violence that is harder to prevent, predict, or contain.
This text is based on extracts from a briefer written by Peter Schwartzstein, April 2025. The complete paper can be found here.
See below for our coverage on similar topics:
- Conflict in a Warming World: How Climate Shocks Impact Rebel Demands and Peace Agreement Outcomes
- The Impact of Climate Change on Conflict
- Analysis of Interconnected Climate Security and Violent Extremism Risks: A Practical Guide for Mauritania