Ethiopia is in the midst of one of its most severe droughts in the last forty years. Soaring temperatures, coupled with six consecutive seasons of failed rains, have given rise to extreme drought conditions, with the situation worsening over the last few months. Today, more than 28 million people in Ethiopia require humanitarian assistance to deal with the effects of drought. To improve humanitarian conditions, prevent large refugee flows, and address conflict-risks related to the dire climatic situation, locally led adaptation efforts and transfer of knowledge on climate change to local communities are now needed at a quicker pace and scale than ever before.
Causal pathways linking climate change to violent conflict
Studies on climate change and conflict in East Africa has theorized many causal pathways that link climate change to violent conflict. Two of these causal pathways seem particularly relevant to Ethiopia.
The first conflict avenue refers to Worsening Livelihood Conditions. Communities that depend on renewable natural resources such as freshwater, forest areas or fertile soil for their livelihoods are especially vulnerable to the social and economic impacts of climate change. The persistence of extreme weather, such as drought, can lead to the decrease and destruction of resources that support people's livelihoods. Degradation of arable land, depletion of freshwater resources, killing of livestock or crop failures are some examples of ecological impacts of climate change that can put considerable pressure on community livelihoods. When these climate-induced environmental pressures interact with other existing societal pressures (such as political marginalization for instance), people are likely to resort to violence.
A second causal argument pertains to Increasing Migration and Changing Pastoral Mobility Patterns. The physical, economic, and socio-political consequences of climate change threaten to cause the largest refugee crisis in human history. As populations across the globe face physical disasters, or sharp environmental degradation, climate-induced migration is increasingly emerging as an adaptation strategy for communities that have their livelihoods and physical safety jeopardized by climate change. These patterns of migration usually see resource-dependent communities move to regions with higher standards of living such as urban regions or areas where resources are accessible. Similarly, climate-induced land degradation is influencing mobility patterns of pastoral communities by forcing them to meander in grazing areas and search for water points traditionally claimed by other pastoral groups. This can lead or contribute to community-based violent conflict as settler and migrant communities increasingly compete for the same depleting resources.
Drought induced-conflict in the past: the case of Afar-Issa communities
In 2002, Ethiopia experienced a major drought as a result of abnormally high temperatures and a below-average rainy season resulting in massive food shortages and water insecurity. Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists belonging to the Afar and Issa (Dir) communities of Ethiopia were severely affected. With their relationship being marked by years of ethnic tension in the past, the months of drought saw both communities engage in conflict over access to water, pastures, migration routes and cultural value systems.
With the onslaught of drought causing substantial livestock loss, near-complete crop failures and declining overall availability of pastures, both communities were under strain from immense environmental stress. In order to cope with these effects, Issa pastoral groups altered their traditional migration patterns in search of new pastures, often along the banks of the Awash River – an area that the Afar trace their history over generations of ancestral settlements. Thus, they claim most routes, water points and pastures in the region based on traditional territorial homeland. The Issa community however regards that, “pasturage is a gift of God to man in general, or rather to Somalis, and is not considered to belong to specific groups”, thereby allowing them right to access any natural resource and to contest the grazing pastures and water points along the riverbank.
This situation of resource contestation bred significant tension among the Afar and Issa communities, especially owing to historic sentiments of enmity. The tensions resulted in the mobilization of communities along ethnic lines which ultimately spurred violent conflict between the two communities. High-fatality estimates maintain, nearly 248 Afar and Issa community members losing their lives.
Current on-the-ground situation in Ethiopia
The present-day onset of drought in Ethiopia is similarly jeopardizing the livelihoods of many pastoralists and agro-pastoralists in an alarming manner. Drought-induced environmental stresses in the form of degrading grazing pastures and drying up of river beds is worsening the livelihood conditions of local populations. Since 2021, more than 6.8 million livestock deaths have been recorded. An additional 25 million livestock are at immediate risk of famine and disease. During these critical drought months, hundreds and thousands of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists are migrating in search of water, pasture and assistance. Learning from previous outbreaks of communal conflict in the region, such patterns of migration and pastoral movement in newer territories can risk the eruption of conflict between certain communities who have a history of hostility.
More recently however, climate conditions have caused a revision to sudden above-average rainfall. Though it may be alleviating immediate drought conditions, excess rainfall has severely affected millions and damaged the economy. “Coupled with dry soils (as a consequence of prolonged drought), the heavy rainfall caused flooding in some of the worst drought-affected areas, damaging infrastructure and agricultural land and driving displacement.” reports the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET).
In Somali and Oromia regions alone, floods have displaced more than 196,000 people, while Cholera and Dengue-Fever outbreaks are threatening the lives of thousands of Ethiopians. Despite improved rainfall situations, which has spurred some regeneration of pasture / water points, and offers opportunities for farming and pastoral/ agro-pastoral activities in drought-affected parts of the country, recuperation of livelihoods and losses will take a long time – provided droughts do not recur.
In addition, on-going political instability makes recovery very difficult for Ethiopia. Though the November 2022 Ethiopia-Tigray peace agreement offers an immediate cessation of hostilities, the country still suffers from sporadic violent conflict and civil unrest in Tigray-Afar borders, Amhara, Oromia, Gambella and Benishangul-Gumuz regions of Ethiopia. While internal conflicts are deeply concerning, the external geopolitical environment is making the situation worse for Ethiopia. In particular, the Russia-Ukraine war is undermining humanitarian efforts and severely impacting the economy.
Ethiopia relies heavily on the import of key commodities from Russia and Ukraine. For instance, in 2021, Addis Ababa imported wheat worth $440 million from Ukraine, and $76.9 million from Russia. With disruptions in global supply chains, prices of key import commodities such as wheat, fertilizers or energy products have skyrocketed. Food inflation increased 43%, while fertilizer prices rose more than 200%, pushing Ethiopia into a critical balance of payments position, and worsening the food security situation in the country.
The way forward: humanitarian aid, climate adaption and social resilience-building
With the country’s long history of recurring droughts only increasing in magnitude and frequency, special attention needs to be directed to addressing these conflict risks that emerge as a consequence of extreme climate events. To this end, three approaches pave the way forward in mitigating conflict-risks: scaled-up humanitarian aid, widespread adoption of climate adaptation techniques, and a focus towards social resilience building.
In Ethiopia, the response strategy is generally centered around providing immediate humanitarian assistance. Ethiopia’s humanitarian architecture is formed by various IOs, NGOs and the National, sub-National and local-level authorities. The joint government-humanitarian response in the country is coordinated through the Disaster Risk Management Technical Working Group (DRMTWG) and National Inter Cluster Coordination Groups (ICCG). Together, they work to identify priority areas and coordinate response strategies. Emergency responses usually target agricultural sectors, Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) operations, education, food and nutrition, water, health and protection.
With Ethiopia facing devastating food insecurity, unprecedented droughts, and heightened levels of violence across the country, humanitarian needs of affected populations continue to deepen, and expand, especially in drought-affected areas. Considering the scale of challenges, humanitarian aid falls short. The international humanitarian community, along with UN member states need to scale up funding and coordinate responses to not only save lives and alleviate immediate suffering, but prepare the foundations for durable solutions, and support recovery and rehabilitation of affected livelihoods.
At this point, the effects of climate change are here to stay. Specific to Ethiopia, projected trends indicate that climate change is expected to increase drought stress, as well as the risk of flooding. To offset these risks, adaptation measures need to be carried out to reduce the vulnerabilities of populations and build coping capacities. While the Government of Ethiopia recognizes the importance of merging adaptation strategies into development planning and supports a range of adaptation-related initiatives, action needs to be scaled-up.
Herein, locally led adaption focused on soil and water conservation, rehabilitation of natural resources and livestock health is one way to build coping capacities. More specifically, improvements in water capture and storage, investments in irrigation structures and adopting sustainable land management practices will make affected populations more resilient to climate shocks. Cloud seeding and off-farm income opportunities are some non-traditional adaptation options that could help the situation.
While emergency aid and capacity building measures will certainly help mitigate climate-related security risks, targeting the social component in climate adaptation will similarly address these conflict risks from a different angle. A recent policy brief by SIPRI informs of two policy approaches based on key social factors that could support climate adaptation outcomes:
- improve trust between communities and governments through collaborative processes for knowledge exchange, setting priorities and determining appropriate climate change adaptation practices;
- increase knowledge of climate change among traditional and local leaders to strengthen local conflict resolution mechanisms.
Both processes intend on building social capital between communal groups through different strategies. The underlying logic assumes that relationships among communities built on norms, reciprocity and trust are less likely to enter resource-related communal conflict situations. Promoting common values and sharing of information can help restore trust, bring social cohesion and improve governance – all factors that can address conflict and build peace.
This article was authored by Harman Singh a prior intern with the Planetary Security Initiative. To learn more about the climate and conflict nexus in Ethiopia, click here to read his Master Thesis.