Article published in New Security Beat, October 2025.
Europe, often perceived as insulated from climate insecurity, faces a rising tide of climate-related challenges destabilizing its social fabric. Contrary to assumptions of political stability and governance capacity, Europe contends with intensifying climate shocks such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves that exacerbate existing inequalities and vulnerabilities.
In this article, Peter Schwartzstein discusses several findings from his report A Distant Problem No Longer (co-authored with Sabrina Kaschowitz), which shows that climate change is already driving crime and social unrest across Europe. Drawing on field research and regional media sources, the report traces multiple manifestations of climate-linked insecurity affecting several diverse areas in Europe. The first section discusses the rise of rural crime in tandem with climate stress and feelings of neglect within depopulating agricultural regions. Offenses such as water theft, crop theft, and opportunistic looting during extreme weather events have become more prevalent. Financial constraints and reduced oversight have made these communities especially vulnerable to exploitation.
The second section of the report assesses growing tensions over water resources both within and between European states. While large-scale inter-state conflicts over water remain improbable, domestic disputes involving agriculture, tourism, and urban–rural divides are intensifying. The authors note that several countries, including Greece and Bulgaria, have encountered friction in renewing water-sharing agreements, with political actors framing such negotiations through nationalist rhetoric.
''Many European countries have little history of negotiating over water, and so are apt to trip over one another’s sensitivities, while plenty of others may feel compelled by unrelated domestic political considerations to opt for ‘muscular’ rhetoric over transboundary rivers.'' - Peter Schwartzstein
At the local level, Sicily exemplifies how prolonged drought and chronic mismanagement have bred discord among municipalities and between citizens and authorities.
The third section of the report examines how climate-related crises are being manipulated by foreign and domestic actors to exacerbate social divisions and erode trust in democratic institutions. Both state-sponsored and extremist groups have recognized the political utility of exploiting environmental shocks.
Schwartzstein and Kaschowitz position their work as an attempt to fill a notable research gap in European studies of climate and security. Few prior analyses have addressed the continent’s own experiences with climate-driven instability. The report thus seeks to reposition climate security into European and EU-level policy agendas.
The anecdotal and exploratory methodology of the report shows both a shortage of formal data and an intent to provide an accessible entry point into a neglected but increasingly critical policy domain.
This summary is based on extracts from the article by Peter Schwartzstein. The original piece can be found here.
Photo credit Chris Gallagher on Unsplash.
See below for our coverage on similar topics: