Since 2010, there has been a shift in the Swedish armed forces' (SAF) perception on Climate change. A recent study, based on a qualitative analysis of official documents, publications, and public statements, suggests that climate change is becoming institutionalized in the SAF. According to the researcher, Rickard Söder, climate change has not been a dominant issue for the SAF before. However, it has been conceptualized differently in recent years, and mentioned increasingly in strategic documents and statements by senior officials. The SAF expect climate security risks to grow ever more pressing and significant. They acknowledge climate change's impact and strive to be able to cope with its consequences. In addition, according to the SAF, climate change will require more than just the military's preparation. They expect a general societal preparedness to be required in the future.
With regard to the SAF's role in climate security, an increase is expected in the provision of disaster relief, as the frequency and intensity of natural disasters grows due to climate change. They also foresee a higher relevance for their conventional military capacities, as climate effects may cause new national security problems. One case often referred to is the melting of the Arctic, which may cause increased geopolitical tensions between Arctic nations.
The shift in the SAF's discourse may also affect general Swedish perceptions with regard to climate change. They are respected and popular, and therefore an influential Swedish organization.
So what caused this shift in their climate security perspective? The author points to several potential factors:
- Growing international & domestic concerns about climate change
- Increasing strategic rationale for taking climate change into security considerations
- Ambitions of the Swedish government, which has labelled climate change as a threat to national security in their National Security Strategy
- Changing attitudes among the public. According to a recent survey, in Sweden, climate change has been the greatest public concern, above war, conflict and terrorism
This article provides key points of a paper written by Rickard Söder. It was published by Elsevier in Earth System Governance 15, in January 2023. Read the full article here.