Critical Questions Interview by the Center for Strategic Studies and International Studies, August 5, 2026
In a recent CSIS Critical Questions Interview, Franck Gbaguidi and Caitlin Welsh provide a rounded overview of the connection between water and security. During the interview multiple elements that are turning access to water into a security issue were highlighted.
The incidence of water-related violence has reached unprecedented levels as scarcity, governance issues, and increasing climate volatility combine with a fragmented - and unstable - geopolitical order.
What are then the main frontlines of water security in 2026?
- Transboundary water disputes are becoming geopolitical flashpoints.
Upstream-downstream dynamics underline the relevance of control over shared rivers. One example is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which Ethiopia views as a symbol of sovereignty and development, while Egypt sees changes to Nile flows as an existential concern
- Water stress can fuel domestic instability and governance issues
Water scarcity - when combined with corruption, weak infrastructure and unequal access - can turn into a time bomb for the socio-economic stability of concerned areas. In South Africa, for example, recurring protests over shortages and failing services have coincided with the emergence of criminal “water tanker mafias” profiting from unreliable supply.
- Some regions are approaching "water bankruptcy"
In the most severe cases, water systems are no longer able to meet demand, causing vast social, economic and environmental damage. In Iran, for example, Tehran came close to a "Day Zero" scenario in late 2025, prompting warning that the capital could eventually require evacuation.
- Water infrastructure is increasingly becoming a security target
Conflict and cyber threats are increasingly exposing the vulnerability of these essential infrastructure for civilian life. The interviewees point to repeated attacks on water infrastructure - including desalination systems - in Yemen, Ukraine, Gaza and in the Persian Gulf, alongside cyberattacks against water systems in several US states.
This summary is based on extracts from a Critical Questions interview by Franck Gbaguidi (CSIS) and Caitlin Welsh (CSIS), and produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). To read the full interview, follow this link.
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