Niger has become a flashpoint where political instability, (foreign) military interventions, and climate change converge. European military interventions, long portrayed as essential to stabilizing the Sahel, have failed to improve security, fuelling growing resentment. This resentment also extends to the United States, which, prior to its foreign policy shift in 2025 on issues, frequently collaborated with European actors in Niger.
One key reason is the consistent neglect of climate security – the impact of climate change on security dynamics. Without addressing climate insecurity, military efforts remain short-lived, leaving Niger vulnerable to cascading crises.
Niger’s Junta, in power since the unexpected July 2023 Coup, must learn from these failures to craft policies that genuinely address Niger's socio-economic and security challenges.
A Military Strategy That Missed the Mark
European military strategies in Niger have centred on counterterrorism, geopolitical influence and resource control (e.g., uranium). Their militarized approach proved ineffective (e.g., for France), fuelling anti-European sentiment, ultimately leading to the end of military cooperation with France in 2023 and the United States in 2024.
The multiplication of military interventions perceived as colonial remnants and infringements on sovereignty sparked discontent over the dismissal of Niger’s own military professionalism. The stagnation of European military strategies (e.g., France’s Barkhane) and successive withdrawals in the Sahel deepened doubts about their added value and motives, suspected of harbouring hidden agendas by supporting armed groups.
Short term and tactical victories (e.g., killing of terrorists’ leaders) have been fleeting as deeper structural problems remain unaddressed. The continued neglect of environmental degradation has allowed conflicts over scarce resources to persist, undermining long-term stability. Military campaigns alone cannot prevent cycles of violence without tackling root causes.
Climate Change: The Silent Instigator of Instability
Niger is one of the most climate-vulnerable nations, often experiencing intensified droughts, erratic rainfall, and devastating floods as seen in 2024 when floods affected over 1.5 million people and claimed hundreds of lives. By mid-2025, over 2.5 million Nigeriens are expected to face food insecurity. Without resilience strategies, these environmental challenges will further drive migration, conflict, and economic decline.
Climate change acts as a threat multiplier, exacerbating insecurity. Pastoralists have historically migrated south during dry seasons, but shrinking grazing lands due to climate change, demographic growth and agricultural expansion have fuelled conflicts with farmers. These conflicts are exacerbated by insufficient traditional peace mechanisms while state pro-farmers policies marginalize pastoralists from decision-making, echoing colonial-era pastoralists’ sedentarisation. Thus, intercommunal conflicts stem from socio-political and climatic factors rather than ethnic divides.
Facing hardship, some herders join non-state armed groups (NSAGs), not out of ideology but for protection or vengeance. Exploiting insecurity and climate vulnerability, NSAGs position themselves as governance actors, regulating resource disputes or providing services. However, these actions remain ad hoc and opportunistic often accompanied by coercion methods such as extortion, theft, and violence, ultimately harming the environment. Cut off from aid and dependent on NSAG for accessing resources, they face limited local pushback against their rule.
Climate Security: A Path Toward Stability
Niger offers both a cautionary tale and a potential model for rethinking engagement by placing climate security at the centre. Moving beyond a purely military focus, European actors could build a more constructive partnership by aligning local needs with geopolitical interests.
As European influence in the Sahel and Niger wanes, climate security presents a politically neutral entry point for re-engagement. Climate initiatives, unlike military or economic interventions, could rebuild trust and credibility. Compared to Russia and China, whose involvements in Africa resume military and economic neo-colonialist leverage, European nations could differentiate themselves by fostering technical cooperation on climate resilience. This would yield tangible results, offering a means to maintain influence in international institutions by positioning themselves as champions of African climate security, without resorting to outdated neocolonial tactics
However, this shift requires a fundamental change, one that prioritizes listening to local needs and fostering genuine non-paternalistic partnerships. Only a pragmatic, mutually beneficial cooperation will ensure the future of European diplomacy in the region.
For this strategy to succeed, Niger’s junta must also shift its approach to integrate climate security too. While sovereigntist rhetoric effectively mobilized domestic support, it lacks a long-term vision. Criticism of former President Bazoum’s governance, economic hardship, corruption, notably over natural resources (e.g., oil), and insecurity, remains relevant under the junta, which has not resolved these challenges.
The junta’s over-militarized responses and new defence agreements with Russia, Turkey or China not only de-prioritised resilience-building efforts but have also failed to address the underlying socio-economic and environmental drivers of conflict. As a result NSGAs’ spread and worsen insecurity.
To meet the climate expectations of the population, the junta should encourage resilience-building projects. Natural resource management, agricultural adaptation and pastoral mediation programs would curb intercommunal conflict, reducing NSAG recruitment and freeing up resources for social services, development and counterterrorism.
Lastly, the newly formed and criticized Alliance of Sahel States ‘unified force against terrorism’ should be complemented by non-military measures, such as environmental peacebuilding programs, building on existing initiatives. For example, the Great Green Wall in the Sahel demonstrates how restoring degraded lands can bolster food security, create employment opportunities, and reduce resource scarcity, thereby addressing key drivers of conflict, while fostering cross-border cooperation and regional stability.
By reviving diplomatic efforts initiated under former President Bazoum, Niger could regain access to critical funding and reestablish itself as a regional and international leader on climate security within forums such as the UN Security Council, enhancing Niger’s new diplomatic priorities for a better global reputation.
European actors and the Nigerien junta alike must recognize that the most effective security strategy is one that fosters resilience at the environmental, social, and governance levels, conceiving human and ecological security as an inseparable component of national and international security. More than a new theoretical framework, climate security presents a unique opportunity to redefine and modernize relationships, offering a new entry for engagement that balances Nigerien sovereignty, regional stability, and European interests. Only then can true security be achieved, and equal partnerships be formed, breaking the cycle of intervention, withdrawal, and renewed crisis that has defined the region for decades.
This article was authored by Gabriel Lagrange for the Planetary Security Initiative