Scientists for Global Responsibility (SGR) Publication, September 2025
This report by SGR authored by Dr Stuart Parkinson, assesses and compares the findings of eleven recent studies on the link between rising military expenditure and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. With global military expenditure reaching $2,718 billion in 2024, the highest since the end of the cold war, the report highlights a profound and growing contradiction between global security policy and climate goals. It concludes that the resulting emissions increases are highly likely to undermine the transformative action necessary to meet the Paris 1.5∘C target.
Key Takeaways:
- A standardized rise in military spending of $100 billion is projected to lead to an increase in the global military carbon footprint of approximately 32 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e).
- The increase in NATO's military spending over the five years from 2019–2024 has already led to an increase in its military carbon footprint of about 64 million tCO2e.
- Further planned increases in NATO spending are likely to lead to an additional rise of about 132 million tCO2e, which is more than the territorial emissions of Chile.
- The relationship between military spending and GHG emissions is complex, encompassing direct emissions (fuel, electricity) and significant indirect emissions (Scope 3) from energy-intensive supply-chains (e.g., in the arms industry and raw materials production). These estimates also do not fully include Scope 3+ war-fighting emissions.
- Poor data quality and numerous loopholes in UNFCCC national inventory reports allow data on direct military emissions to be obscured, making accurate monitoring difficult.
“It is extremely difficult to see how the current and planned military spending increases can be reconciled with the transformative action necessary to prevent dangerous climate change.” - Dr. Stuart Parkinson
Recommendations:
- Greatly improve the measuring and reporting of direct and indirect military GHGs, with the wider use of environmentally-extended input-output models especially recommended to capture supply-chain impacts.
- Direct much stronger efforts toward measures to reduce the military carbon footprint, incorporating both technological and non-technological measures.
- Integrate peacebuilding, arms control, and disarmament into climate action as non-technological measures.
- Recognize that reductions in military spending can result in GHG emissions falling at a more rapid rate than they grew.
This summary is based on extracts from the report authored by Dr Stuart Parkinson. The full version can be found here.
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