19 July 2023

Kakhovka Dam Collapse: Medium-Term Consequences

This article discusses the aftermath of the Nova Kakhovka Dam collapse in Ukraine. The dam is the most downstream in a series of six, forming the largest reservoir in Europe. Its collapse resulted in significant flooding, widespread damage, and casualties. This article explores the consequences of its destruction, such as increased downstream flood risk, implications for agricultural activity, and the potential for pollution in the Black Sea. The article emphasizes the need for ongoing investigation and informed actions to manage these diverse impacts.

In the night of 6 June 2023, the Nova Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine collapsed after an explosion, causing very fast rising waters and vast flooding in the downstream river valley, resulting in casualties and the evacuation of residents as well as the destruction of infrastructure. The breached dam forms the most downstream part of the Dnieper reservoir cascade, a series of six dams. In addition to providing energy and water for domestic, industrial, and agricultural use, these dams help to manage high flows and reduce the flood risk. The water levels of the reservoirs are managed by controlled release of water through the dams until it reaches the Black Sea. One month on from the event, and with water retreating, several consequences for the coming years may now become more apparent, causing indirect societal and environmental impacts in Ukraine and beyond.

Another initial analysis by the Water, Peace and Security partnership explored several key insights on short- and long-term impacts. This blog considers in more detail the three water-related concerns that will require future attention and potentially action: an increased downstream flood risk, consequences for agricultural activity, and pollution in the Black Sea. These consequences – and some of their potential impact on the local population, environment, and the wider region – have been assessed using publicly available satellite imagery and hydro-meteorological information. Before we examine these three water-related concerns, we first explore the various hydrological anomalies that have been observed in the months leading up to the incident.

 

This is an excerpt from the blog by the Water, Peace and Security Partnership. To read the full blog including (interactive) figures, click here.

Authored by Hessel Winsemius, Fedor Baart and Ruben Dahm. 

Photo credit: Flickr/EU Civic Protection and Humanitarian Aid Programme