A report published by Center for Climate & Security, August 2025
Indonesia faces intensifying climate change impacts that pose a significant threat to its national security. As the largest archipelagic nation, strategically located between the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean, Indonesia is highly vulnerable to climate hazards like sea-level rise, cyclones, extreme heat, drought, flooding, and wildfires. These threats jeopardize Indonesia’s defence infrastructure, military readiness, and critical economic sectors such as agriculture and fisheries, leading to concerns about food security, internal migration, and unemployment. The nation's continued reliance on fossil fuels, particularly coal, further degrades national security, impacting public health, freshwater systems, and trust due to corruption in the sector.
Growing recognition and strategic opportunities
Indonesian military leaders have acknowledged climate change as a security concern over the past few decades, with the 2008 and 2015 Defense White Papers identifying it as a non-traditional threat with serious implications for national defense and regional stability. These documents highlighted risks such as sea-level rise impacting islands, infrastructure, and shipping lanes, as well as the intersection of climate change with transnational security threats like environmental crime and resource exploitation.
Diplomatically, Indonesia has demonstrated its commitment to the renewable energy transition by participating in the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). This multilateral financing structure aims to support emerging economies in accelerating their shift away from coal production. Furthermore, the transition to renewable energy is seen as a strategic opportunity to enhance Indonesia’s resilience, economic competitiveness, and geopolitical standing. By diversifying its energy portfolio, Indonesia can build strategic partnerships and better insulate itself from the volatility of the fossil fuel market.
On the multilateral front, The ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM) recognized climate change as a security challenge in 2023, and the ADMM-PLUS Joint Statement in November 2024 emphasized a holistic approach to climate-related disasters, acknowledging them as cross-sectoral and transboundary non-traditional challenges. This statement underscored the critical role of militaries in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HA / DR) operations and committed to strengthening climate security capacity-building across member states.
Intensifying vulnerabilities and policy gaps
Indonesia is a hotspot for nearly every climate-related disaster, including wildfires, cyclones, and droughts, with a near 40% increase in such events between 2022 and 2023. Studies project significant temperature increases, impacting marine ecosystems and potentially leading to increased dry days and intensified drought conditions exacerbated by El Niño events.
The country’s intensifying climate vulnerability means it is projected to experience severe climate hazards that threaten its physical territory and national security. A large portion of its population resides in low-elevation coastal zones, highly susceptible to sea-level rise and extreme flooding, which is exacerbated by land subsidence in major centers like Jakarta. This has even led to the government's initiative to move the capital from Jakarta to Nusantara.
These vulnerabilities have several impacts:
• They pose direct risks to military readiness and infrastructure from climate change, with Indonesia’s defense infrastructure, including key military bases in geopolitically sensitive areas like the Natuna Islands, exposed to extreme weather events.
• Climate-sensitive sectors, especially agriculture and fisheries, are vulnerable to erratic precipitation and higher temperatures, threatening staple food production like rice and impacting fishing catches due to coral bleaching and fish migration.
• With some regions already highly vulnerable, climatic shocks could lead to unemployment, internal migration, and public discontent, potentially fueling destabilizing protests or domestic unrest.
• The growing liability of fossil fuel dependence presents additional national security challenges.
Key takeaways: Urgent, coordinated, and inclusive action
To address these multifaceted challenges, Indonesia's efforts must prioritize several key areas:
• Integrate climate security into national defense policy: This is essential for bolstering Indonesia’s long-term resilience against climate risks. The upcoming defense white paper presents a critical opportunity to define the military’s role in supporting the renewable energy transition as a fundamental step towards strengthening the country’s capacity to withstand long-term security risks associated with climate change.
• Accelerate the energy transition: Transitioning away from fossil fuels, particularly coal, is paramount not only for environmental and health benefits but also for enhancing national security and economic competitiveness.
• Promote climate-smart agricultural practices: Investing in domestic food production and promoting adaptive agricultural methods are crucial to mitigate food insecurity and its potential for domestic unrest.
• Strengthen climate security capacity-building and regional cooperation: Through engagements with multilateral organizations like ASEAN, Indonesia can enhance its capacity for climate adaptation, resilience, and interoperability, including technical assistance and innovative approaches for joint civil-military disaster response mechanisms.
This is a summarization of a report originally published by the Center for Climate and Security and authored by Andrea Rezzonico, Caroline Baxter, and Erin Sikorsky. The full version can be found using the link here.