21 January 2026

Europe’s selective blindness on gas: US LNG and the limits of supply diversification

Joint policy brief by the Ecologic Institute, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) and the Clingendael Institute.

Europe is rapidly replacing its dependence on Russian pipeline gas with a dependence on US liquefied natural gas (LNG). In 2025, US LNG imports to the European Economic Area (EEA) increased by 61% compared to 2024, and almost sixfold compared to 2019. US LNG now accounts for almost 60 % of EU LNG imports and about 40 % of total EU gas imports from non-EEA countries. This trend exposes Europe to geopolitical pressure, price volatility and stranded asset risks, argue the brief’s authors.

Based on most recent gas flows data until 31 December 2025, the brief examines the EU's approach to gas supply diversification. The authors highlight that the new EU law on phasing out Russian oil and gas redefines "diversification of supply" as meaning merely the elimination of Russian imports. This risks a "selective blindness" to Europe's growing reliance on US LNG.

'To avoid entrenching a new dependency, a conceptually sound understanding of what diversification truly means, supported by a clear view of trends in energy flows, is imperative.'

Main Takeaways

The policy brief outlines several critical findings regarding the current state and future risks of European gas supply:

  • Norwegian gas as indigenous: The authors advocate for treating Norwegian gas as "indigenous" rather than external due to Norway's deep integration into the EU’s energy system, internal market and regulatory and security architecture.
  • Slowing supply diversification: While the EU has successfully reduced Russian gas imports by 81 % between 2019 and 2025, this has not resulted in a more diverse supplier portfolio. In the same period, US imports increased almost sixfold, while imports from all other suppliers increased only marginally.
  • Geopolitical risks: The US National Security Strategy explicitly frames "energy dominance" as a tool to project power. Recent pressure from the US administration to weaken EU climate and energy legislation indicates that energy trade is already being used as a lever for political influence.

Key recommendations

To mitigate these risks and ensure long-term energy security, the report offers the following recommendations:

  • EU legislation should return to a conventional understanding of diversification and require Member States to monitor all suppliers' share in the EU's import portfolio, rather than focusing solely on the elimination of Russian imports.
  • In the short- to mid-term, the EU can focus on stockpiling and storage, protection of critical energy infrastructure and robust intra-EU solidarity mechanisms.
  • To avoid stranded investments, clear signals about the EU's commitment to its climate and energy policy (e.g., CSDDD and Methane Regulation) are critical.

 

This text is based on extracts from a policy brief written by Raffaele Piria from the Ecologic Institute, Kacper Szulecki from the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), Hannah Lentschig and Louise van Schaik from the The Clingendael Institute. To read the complete piece, follow the link here.

Photo credit: Venti Views on Unsplash

 

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