Research article published by the Environmental Economics and Policy Studies
Geopolitical instability and climate vulnerability are increasingly intertwined. Conflicts and geopolitical tensions do not only disrupt trade and energy markets, but they can also weaken food systems, water security, public health and ecosystems, ultimately making societies more exposed to climate shocks.
This research article published in Environmental Economics and Policy Studies explores exactly this relationship, analysing panel data from 41 countries between 1995 and 2021, using a two-way fixed-effects model. The authors find that geopolitical risk significantly exacerbates climate vulnerability, particularly through its effects on food, water, health and ecosystems. At the same time, the authors argue that green transition policies and green investments can play an important in buffering such effects.
Using the European Green Deal as a case study, the study finds that climate policy can also function as resilience policy in a fragmented geopolitical environment. According to the authors, policy should accelerate renewable energy deployment, mobilise green investment and enhance regional coordination. This, they find, can reduce exposure to geopolitical shocks while strengthening long-term climate resilience.
"Geopolitical risk exacerbates climate vulnerability".
Main takeaways
Geopolitical risks worsen climate vulnerability. Food systems, water access, health conditions and ecosystems become more exposed during periods of heightened geopolitical risk.
Green transition strengthens resilience. Expanding renewables and reducing fossil fuel dependence can help countries better absorb geopolitical shocks.
Climate policy is also security policy. The paper presents the European Green Deal as an example of how green industrial policy can support resilience in an unstable geopolitical environment.
This text is based on extracts from the research article by Kangyin Y. Dong (University of International Business and Economics), Senmiao M. Yang (University of International Business and Economics), Jianda D. Wang (The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, China University of Geosciences), Rabindra Nepal (University of Wollongong), and Tooraj Jamasb (Copenhagen Business School) published by Environmental Economics and Policy Studies.
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