Fact sheet published by the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), June 2026
This new fact sheet by NUPI and SIPRI offers a useful analysis of the ongoing climate and security dynamics around the Lake Chad Region.
The area - which intersects Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria - hosts a population of 45–50 million people, many of whom rely on arable farming, fishing and herding. These communities are closely intertwined with a complex land- and waterscape that is being deeply affected by accelerating climate change.
The key point of the fact sheet is not that climate change is the single driver of conflict in the region. Rather, it shows how climate stressors can amplify existing socio-economic insecurity, governance gaps and armed violence.
Three dynamics stand out in the analysis.
Firstly, livelihood disruptions act as a primary pathway connecting climate change to peace and security risks. Erratic rainfall, desertification, droughts and flooding undermine arable farming, fishing, herding and petty trading. This weakens local economies, increases competition over land and water, and can make some communities more vulnerable to recruitment by armed groups.
Secondly, displacement and transboundery mobility add further pressure. Forced migration is driven mainly by insecurity, but climate-related hazards such as floods and droughts contribute to the movement of people and increase tensions between displaced populations, host communities and local economies.
Thirdly, conflict in the region is deeply connected with the exploitation of the natural resource economy. Armed groups are embedded in sectors such as fishing, livestock, artisanal mining, wood and charcoal production, and trafficking of wildlife products. Control over natural resources, therefore, becomes both a source of financing and a way to exert influence over local communities.
The main takeaway of the analysis is the multiplying effect of climate security on livelihoods, displacement, governance, armed actors and long-standing political grievances.
This is why climate adaptation, livelihood support and natural resource management should be treated as core components of peacebuilding and stabilization efforts - not as separate environmental or humanitarian issues.
This summary is based on extracts from a Fact Sheet published by the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), with funding from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Norway and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark.To read the full article, follow this link.
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